Forecast ledger
Some of what this site records has not happened yet: river flood outlooks and weather warnings are issued days ahead. This page goes back to each one after its date has passed and says what we recorded near it — including the ones where the answer is nothing.
These are not marks out of ten. 74 from METEOALARM, 1 from CAPHUB came due in this window. A weather warning warns about conditions; it does not promise that anyone will report damage, and most warnings pass with nothing separately recorded — by us or by anyone. Read the second number as “we also recorded something of that hazard nearby”, never as a score for the forecaster.
Forecasts that have come due
74 from METEOALARM, 1 from CAPHUB
How this is worked out
A record counts as a forecast when its event date sat more than 12 hours ahead of the moment we stored it. That is read from the data, so any future feed that issues outlooks joins this page without a code change. Right now they come from: METEOALARM, GLOFAS, CAPHUB.
It counts as followed when a record of the same type, from a different source, appears within 150 km and 3 days, and is not itself a forecast.
What that is worth. A match says the forecast was followed by something this archive also recorded. It is not proof the forecast was right, and it is not an accuracy score — a river outlook that correctly predicted a rise nobody reported looks the same here as one that missed. A blank is weaker still: most incident types have no official live feed anywhere, so plenty happens that never reaches this archive. Read the two columns as "what we predicted" and "what we saw", nothing more.
Recomputed every 30 minutes · window: the last 45 days · what we can and cannot see